iziRisk Construction budget We are bidding a 12-month construction project with a $750,000 budget. Monthly labor runs about $52k (low $40k, most likely $52k, high $70k), material prices could rise anywhere from 3% to 15%, and there is roughly a 20% chance of a 4-8 week weather delay that adds cost. What is the probability we exceed the budget, and how much contingency should we hold?
iziRisk Cybersecurity losses We want to quantify our company's annual cyber loss exposure across about 10 threat types — phishing, ransomware, unauthorized access, data breach and others. Each threat has an annual frequency (say ransomware around 0.5 events per year) and a highly variable cost per event (roughly $50,000 to $2,000,000), and some controls reduce frequency or severity. What is our expected annual loss, and what 95th-percentile loss should we hold capital against?
iziRisk FX / currency exposure We hold a €5,000,000 receivable due in six months but report in US dollars. EUR/USD is currently 1.08 with annualized volatility near 9% and a slight upward drift. Model the exchange rate as geometric Brownian motion to find the distribution of the dollar value at settlement, the probability it falls below our budgeted 1.05, and the 5% Value-at-Risk of the position.
iziRisk Insurance portfolio We underwrite about 2,000 accident policies. Claim frequency is roughly Poisson (around 120 claims per year) and each claim's severity is lognormal (mean near $8,000, occasionally above $100,000). We collect $1.2M in premiums and cede any loss above $250,000 to a reinsurer. Simulate the net technical result: expected profit, the probability of an underwriting loss, and the capital needed at the 99.5% level.
$ iziRisk Credit portfolio (RAROC) We manage a loan portfolio of 1,000 exposures totaling about $50M. Each borrower has a probability of default between 2% and 8% by segment, a loss-given-default around 45% (uncertain), and an exposure at default. Simulate the portfolio loss distribution to obtain expected loss, unexpected loss (economic capital at 99.9%), and RAROC given our interest margin.
iziRisk Operational loss (VaR/CVaR) Our operations face several recurring loss events — supply-chain delays, process errors, internal fraud and equipment failure. Each has an annual frequency and a cost per event, some rare but severe. We want the aggregate annual operational-loss distribution, the expected loss, and the 99% VaR and CVaR to size our operational-risk buffer.
iziRisk Project schedule delay We are planning a multi-phase project with tasks in sequence. Each task's duration is uncertain — design 3-6 weeks, procurement 4-10 weeks, construction 12-20 weeks — and some tasks can overlap. There is also a 25% chance of a permitting delay. What is the distribution of the total finish date, the probability we miss our 40-week deadline, and which task contributes most to the risk?
$ iziRisk Investment NPV / IRR We are evaluating a $2,000,000 investment expected to generate cash flows over five years. Annual revenue growth is uncertain (5% to 20%), the operating margin varies (25% to 40%), and the discount rate is around 12%. What is the distribution of the project's NPV and IRR, and the probability the NPV is negative?
iziRisk Ransomware: inherent vs residual We want to compare our ransomware risk before and after controls. Without controls we expect around 0.8 incidents per year with a per-incident loss between $100,000 and $3,000,000 (business interruption plus recovery). Backups and EDR cut the frequency by about 60% and the severity by about 30%. Show the inherent and residual annual loss distributions and the expected reduction in the 95th-percentile loss.
iziRisk Commodity price risk We will buy 10,000 tonnes of a raw material in three months. The current price is $600 per tonne with annualized volatility around 25%. Model the price with geometric Brownian motion to get the distribution of our total purchase cost, the probability it exceeds our budgeted $6.3M, and the 95% worst-case cost we should hedge or provision for.
$ iziRisk Loan default portfolio We have lent money to 40 counterparties for a total of $500,000. Each loan has its own default probability (2% to 25%) and a recovery rate between 20% and 60% if it defaults. What is the distribution of our total credit loss, the expected loss, and the probability we lose more than $100,000?
$ iziRisk Cash-flow at risk (liquidity) We want to project our monthly cash position over the next 12 months. Monthly collections are uncertain (they vary roughly ±20% around plan), fixed obligations like payroll and rent are known, and there is a chance of a large one-off outflow. What is the probability our cash balance turns negative in any month, and how large a credit line should we secure?